From the course: Universal Principles of Design
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Crowd intelligence
- Hi, I'm William Lidwell and this is Universal Principles of Design. In this movie, Crowd Intelligence, how to guess the number of jelly beans in a jar. It was at a farmer's fair in 1906 that English polymath, psychologist, inventor, and statistician, Sir Francis Galton, became intrigued by a weight-guessing contest. The challenge, guess the weight of an ox butchered and dressed. The person to come closest would win a prize. After the contest, Galton got a hold of the tickets, just shy at 800 entries in all, and analyzed the responses statistically. He found that the average of the guesses missed the weight by only one pound, which was closer than any individual guess, and better than the cattle experts at the fair, a triumph for democratic thought. Similar experiments had been conducted with crowds estimating temperature, height, weight, maze running, search results ranking, and, of course, the number of jelly beans in a jar. In all of these experiments, the average estimate of the…
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