From the course: Everyday Statistics, with Eddie Davila

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Bayes' theorem

Bayes' theorem

From the course: Everyday Statistics, with Eddie Davila

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Bayes' theorem

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- [Instructor] If you're interested in stats, you've probably noticed that Bayes' theorem seems to be showing up everywhere. Medicine, sorting spam out of your email, self-driving cars, and as a key tool in the development of other artificial intelligence technologies. So, what is it and how does it work? Bayes' theorem starts with a belief. I'm in my car, ready for work. I don't have my phone. I think I left it on the charger. Nope, it's not there. My belief will need to be adjusted to solve my problem. Original belief plus new information drives me to an updated and, hopefully, improved belief. That is Bayes' theorem. A more common example of the use of Bayes' theorem is disease screening. Imagine that 1% of the population has the disease, 99% does not have the disease, but the test to check for the disease is not perfect. It is 98% accurate. Therefore, 2% of the screening tests deliver a false result. Now imagine…

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