From the course: Everyday Statistics, with Eddie Davila

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Hurricanes

Hurricanes

- [Instructor] Hurricanes are powerful storms. They can cause damage to property, and of course they sometimes cause injuries and deaths. They're scary for all of these reasons of course, but they're also scary because they're unpredictable. To help citizens and governments, meteorologists use statistics to forecast the strength, size, and path of hurricanes. But what do these forecasts mean, how are they developed? Forecasts are developed using different methodologies. Meteorologists gather tons of atmospheric data. To keep this simple, model one might use four variables and that data would be used to develop a forecast with the model one formula. Model two might use six variables, some similar to model one, some different. This data would be used in the formula for model two. This is why two different models might provide two very different forecasts. Also remember, as with any statistical forecast each forecast comes with a level of uncertainty. Often these results are presented to…

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