From the course: Everyday Statistics, with Eddie Davila

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In-game win probabilities

In-game win probabilities

From the course: Everyday Statistics, with Eddie Davila

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In-game win probabilities

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- [Instructor] Five minutes left in the game. Your team is ahead. Can this last? Can your team actually hold on and win the championship? At this point in the match, what are the odds your team will win this game? Nowadays, when watching a sporting event, either the telecast or a website may track the live in game win probability, the probability that one team will win the game at that moment in the game. Two equal teams would start the game at 50 50 odds. Then, team A scores first. Their odds might jump to 65%. Right before half time, team A scores again. Now their odds increase to 80%. These win probability tools are developed by statisticians. The goal is to create a tool that is statistically accurate. If the tool says that home teams winning by 10 points at half time win 85% of the time, the 20 games in which that scenario presented itself we would expect that 17 times the home team would win the game, and three times…

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